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Australian jobs data due at 0130 Thursday 15 April 2021 - preview

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 23:25:17 Z

An earlier two previews are here:  Australian employment report for March A couple of other small snippets from analysts.  CBA are looking for an above-consensus job growth number in the month of +45K, and below consensus unemployment rate of 5.6%.

New Zealand data - Food Price (inflation) for March: 0.0% m/m (prior -0.9%)

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 22:45:12 Z

While food prices are viewed as non-core, they do make up just under 20% of the CPI in NZ. Unchanged m/m    The NZD appreciation post-RBNZ (April Monetary Policy Review) was impressive against the USD but less so against rising AUD. Its up better against other crosses though. The RBNZ review removed a potential (though minor) risk factor. 

Australia faces a big risk of tariffs on its exports

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 22:24:40 Z

A piece in Australia's national newspaper today flags a risk ahead for Australia's exports. Says Australia is the world's third-largest carbon emitter per capita, behind Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan

ICYMI - recap of Fed vice-chair Clarida's comments

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 22:06:59 Z

Clarida seems to have been given the green light to discuss tapering, other Fed officials have had wrists slapped by Powell for doing the same. From Clarida Wednesday US time as posted on ForexLive:

US CDC extends the pause on usage of Johnson & Johnson vaccine

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 21:28:32 Z

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention immunisation panel says its awaiting further information on the risk of the vaccine. Which, effectively, means the pause on the use of the J&J vaccine has been extended.

New Zealand March house sales +31.2% y/y (prior +14.6%)

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 21:04:00 Z

y/y comparisons do a reasonable job removing seasonal fluctuations, unless the year ago was in the seeding of a global pandemic of course ....  NZ data the latest illustration. 

Fed's Clarida drops clues on what to watch for hints of asset purchase taper ahead

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 20:43:24 Z

Richard Clarida is Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve System Earlier remarks: Drops this now: (SEP is Summary of Economic Projections, these are issued at FOMC meetings, although not every meeting) 

Trade ideas thread - Thursday 15 April 2021

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 20:43:18 Z

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:         

Australian employment report for March due 15 April 2021 at 0130GMT

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 20:43:09 Z

Employment Change and the jobless rater are the twin headlines Scotia:

Fed vice-chair Clarida says Fed rates will be lower for longer, will delay lift-off

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 20:18:39 Z

Federal Reserve Vic Chair Clarida in Q&A  Earlier from the chap: 'Lower for longer' and 'delayed liftoff' are right out of the Fed script right now. No surprises. 

Mixed results in the US stocks. Dow up. Nasdaq and S&P lower

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 20:10:23 Z

No new records today as investors focus attention on Coinbase debut The US stocks are ending the session with mixed results. The Dow did snap eight to date losing streak, but the S&P and NASDAQ index both close lower with the NASDAQ index taking on most of the downward heat.  The S&P index reached a new all-time intraday high

ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: We'll taper when we've made substantial progress

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 20:01:01 Z

Forex news for North American trading on April 14, 2021: Markets: - Gold down $9 to $1736 - US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 1.63% - WTI crude oil up $2.69 to $62.87 News flow was light on Wednesday but price action was lively as the antipodeans led the way. The RBNZ was earlier in the day but didn't

Economic calendar due from Asia today - Australia jobs report

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 19:59:26 Z

On the data calendar for the session ahead: 2100 GMT New Zealand house sales for March 2145 GMT New Zealand Food Price (inflation) for March 2350 GMT Japan international securities flows for the week

Fed's Clarida talks about the new policy framework

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 19:46:43 Z

Comments from the Fed Quotable: Expect to hear more from him because he will take questions from the moderator afterwards. In terms of implications, we've heard this before and the market has absorbed the message. However the market is not convinced

EURUSD finds some sellers at the key swing area. Corrects into the close

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 19:39:14 Z

The 1.1987 to 1.1991 area stalls the rally.   see post here The next target would be resistance at swing highs from March between 1.1987 to 1.1991.  The high price reached 1.19869 - just below that target - and has rotated lower. That level was also outlined in the .  

Preview: Economists are expecting a strong March retail sales report. Why it might be even stronger

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 19:03:31 Z

Preview of the March 2021 US retail sales report There are two options for the March US retail sales report: Strong and stronger. That's because the US Treasury sent out $1400 stimulus payments to the majority of Americans in the month. It was also a month where the economy continued to reopen as states loosened lockdowns.

WTI crude oil futures settle at $63.15

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 18:56:56 Z

Up $2.97 or 4.94% The pair was higher earlier in the day after breaking above a topside pennant trendline late yesterday, and got shot higher after inventory data this week showed a sharp reduction. The breakout of the up and down trading range going back to March, and a more recent up and down range (see red boxes) gave

Fed's Williams: Vaccinations and stronger business activity may limit long-term economic damage

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 18:53:45 Z

Comments from the NY Fed President This is right out of the FOMC hymn book. There isn't much to separate the different Fed talking heads at the moment. More:

USDJPY below 109.00 is a bearish tilt

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 18:30:08 Z

The price has been trading above and below the level today The USDJPY is modestly lower on the day (-10 pips), after trading down as much as around 31 pips at the low.  Nevertheless, the pair is trying to stay below the 109.00 area which is home to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart

Fed's Beige Book highlights growing optimism and accelerating prices

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 18:02:08 Z

Feds Beige Book for April 2021 In the smaller breakdowns, you have the Boston Fed noting that "several contacts expressed growing concerns about inflation." Expect to see more of that in the coming months.

Coinbase (COIN) opens at $381

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 17:27:27 Z

The reference price was $250 The price of Coinbase has started trading (COIN) at $381. That was well above the reference price at $250 in the direct listing. 

USDCAD continues the run lower....

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 17:13:19 Z

Non trend to trend? In an earlier post I pointed out the holding of the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the non-trending nature of the market (). 

Euro nears a break in approach to 1.20

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 16:50:07 Z

Optimism building around the vaccine Not much needs to be written about the EUR/USD chart right now. It's right on the cusp of a break of the series of March highs up to 1.1990 and 1.20, which is just behind it.

Oil extends gains to 5% in climb above $63. USD/CAD nears 1.2500

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 16:39:55 Z

WTI up $3 The surprise tightening in US oil inventories today along with optimism about demand and commodities in general have led to a big day for crude in a potential end of weeks of consolidation.

Fed's Powell: Repeats that the economy appears to be at an inflection point

Wed, 14 Apr 2021 16:03:56 Z

Comments from Powell These comments are the same as his 60 Minutes comments so far. I really appreciate this line from Powell, both the spirit and how it was delivered.

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